Suchergebnisse

Demographic challenges and labor market potentials for the German pension system - Evaluation of the German pension reform process - Notional defined contribution systems as a reform alternative - Intergenerational distribution and deterministic and stochastic internal rates of return.

The German pension system was the first formal pension system in the world, designed by Bismarck nearly 120 years ago. It has been very successful in providing high and reliable pension levels at reasonable contribution rates. While the generosity of the German pension system is considered a great social achievement, negative incentive effects of past reforms in the 1970s and 1980s and population aging are threatening the very core of the system. This has led to fundamental pension reforms since 1992. Based on a detailed simulation model of the German pension system, this book provides a thorough assessment of the system and its reforms. It shows that the latest reforms have put the system back onto a stable path and moved it from the old monolithic towards a multi-pillar system.

The German pension system was the first formal pension system in the world, designed by Bismarck nearly 120 years ago. It has been very successful in providing high and reliable pension levels at reasonable contribution rates. While the generosity of the German pension system is considered a great social achievement, negative incentive effects of past reforms in the 1970s and 1980s and population aging are threatening the very core of the system. This has led to fundamental pension reforms since 1992. Based on a detailed simulation model of the German pension system, this book provides a thorough assessment of the system and its reforms. It shows that the latest reforms have put the system back onto a stable path and moved it from the old monolithic towards a multi-pillar system

This paper presents projections of the medium- and long-term labor force trends in Germany. Since such projections depend highly on future political decisions and corresponding behavioral changes, we apply a scenario-based approach. Our main findings are that the future size of the labor force and actual employment will decline in the future even in the most favorable scenario. In our slightly optimistic scenario we assume a stepwise convergence of German labor force participation rates to the current Danish rates. In this case the size of the labor force will decline by around 2.8 million to approximately 39.4 million in 2040. Without any further labor market reforms, the size of the labor force will decline by more than 9 million to around 32.6 million in 2040. Regarding actual employment, the decline is more moderate in the Denmark scenario (by 2.5 million to 36.2 million in 2040) but much stronger in the Status quo scenario (by 11 million to 27.4 million in 2040). At the same time, the labor force ages rapidly. We find an increase in the share of workers aged 55 and older from around 11% today to roughly 20% in 2040.

"Die Bundesregierung hat im Frühjahr 2007 die Anhebung des gesetzlichen Rentenalters von 65 auf 67 Jahre beschlossen. In diesem Beitrag simulieren wir die langfristigen Auswirkungen dieser Maßnahme auf die finanzielle Lage der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung. Im Gegensatz zu bisherigen Simulationen basieren die Ergebnisse auf einem in sich konsistenten Modell, das Rückkopplungen zwischen der Entwicklung der Erwerbsbevölkerung, dem Übergang in die Rente und der Entwicklung des Rentnerbestandes explizit berücksichtigt. Insgesamt führt die Anhebung der Altergrenzen zu einem geringeren Anstieg des Beitragssatzes ab 2013 und einem geringeren Rückgang des Bruttorentenniveaus ab 2014. Es stellt sich heraus, dass der Effekt unterschiedlicher Verhaltensreaktionen auf die Entwicklung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung aufgrund der stabilisierenden Wirkung von Abschlägen relativ gering ist. Auf der individuellen Eben kann durch einen späteren Renteneintritt die Höhe des Einkommens aus der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung deutlich verbessert werden." (Autorenreferat)

To which countries do people migrate? What role does income play in drawing migrants to certain countries? This essay attempts to answer these questions. It also presents a comprehensive overview of migration theories as well as worldwide trends in migration. Shrinking populations in high-income countries indicate that a demand for migrants exists. Empirical data on 155 countries shows that migration to a specific region can be explained as a function of income or per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of this country. It establishes the direction of flow of migrants from low-income to high-income countries. Regulating the demand for and supply of migrants together in the European context requires government intervention in the form of a more comprehensive, legal and unified migration policy.